Thursday, 9 January 2014

2014 UK property market - whats the forecast?

With expectations for future house price growth are at a fourteen-year high the upward trend is set to continue, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Its latest report shows that almost 60 per cent more chartered surveyors across the country predict prices to continue rising next year, the highest figure since September 1999.


 The RICS figures also indicate that all regions of the UK saw price rises last month for the second successive month. The average number of homes sold per chartered surveyor also rose to over 20, compared to 16 over the same period last year.



Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: "It's no secret that the housing market is on the way up and prices are surging ahead in many parts of the country. The Bank of England's recent decision to withdraw the Funding for Lending scheme could well have some impact on the number of people able to purchase a home.


"One thing we are very concerned about, however, is the lack of both new and existing homes coming on to the market. As the Chancellor pointed out last week, housebuilding is on the up, but it is rising nowhere near quickly enough to make up the shortfall that has built up in recent years. If there is not meaningful increase in new homes, the likelihood is that prices, and for that matter rents, will continue to push upwards making the cost of shelter ever more unaffordable."


The Council of Mortgage Lenders' latest study, also released today, suggests that activity in the housing and mortgage markets will continue to rise in 2014, though argues that an "unbridled housing boom" is unlikely.


The CML is forecasting a rise in gross lending from an estimated £170 billion this year to £195 billion next year, and £206 billion in 2015.


"We think there are good grounds to be optimistic that the vast majority of households will cope with a slow but certain transition to more normal interest rates," said CML chief economist Bob Pannell. "This seems to be the game-plan which the Bank of England has in mind, but presumes, as we do, that the UK avoids a destabilising housing boom over the next few years."


Comments reprinted from The Independent, Thursday 2nd January 2014.

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